Strategy For Betting Baseball | How I Make My Picks


Here is a brief overview of how I make my MLB picks. For starters I don't like to bet baseball right from the start. I look at a lot of stats and like to have at least a month's worth of stats from the current season to go on. I start betting baseball seriously in early to mid May. Personally, I don't like to bet a lot of games. I do best when I pick one game a day. I go with the game I like the most and stay away from the games I kind of like. On occasion I will make 2 to 3 picks on the same day but not very often. Quite often I will not make any picks. I am not a fan of betting big favorites. I strongly recommend staying away from big favorites. What is a big favorite? I consider anything over -150 (1.67) to be a big favorite. Therefore, all picks will have odds of -150 or lower with the average price of all my bets being under -120 (1.83). As a result, you will be seeing a lot of totals selections. The types of bets you will see me making include moneyline bets, game totals bets, team total bets, first 5 inning bets, and runline bets (-1.5, +1.5, -1, and -0.5, +0.5 bets from 1st 5 inning bets). Personally, I will be making my bets at Sportbet. All my bets will be 1 unit wagers. I will be using 100.00 as a unit. I always risk an amount that will win me 1 unit.

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As mentioned I like my stats and here are some of the places I get them from and some of the ways in which I use them.

I really like the MLB Matchup pages at This is great for a lot of things. In the pitching section on each matchup page there is an in-depth tab. This is great for seeing a starting pitchers last 10 games. Don't forget to check out the K's to innings pitched as this a strong indicator as to how well a pitcher is performing. Also you can always get an up to date injury report here as well.

MLB Weather. I do like my weather reports and never make a bet without looking at them, especially when it comes to totals betting. Do I bet the over just because the wind is blowing out. Of course not. The weather is just one part of the formula. An overlooked aspect of the weather is the temperature. Balls carry much better in warmer weather. It is important to know your ballparks. Some are domes or retractable roofs so weather is not as important or can be tricky to figure in these ballparks. I still don't have a feel for Miami's new stadium. In parks like San Fran, L.A., SD, Oakland, and Seattle the wind blowing out doesn't mean a lot to me. These are all pitcher ballparks and the ball just doesn't carry well, especially in night games (with a cold temperature). Now, if we see a nice breeze blowing out on a warm sunny day in Yankee Stadium, Boston, Cincinnati, Wrigley (obviously) and we don't have any top pitchers in top form going I'll be looking towards an over in this spot. The website I have been using for my weather these days is

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Starting lineups. About an hour or two before each game you can always get the starting lineup information. I use baseball press to get the starting lineups. I don't always wait to see the lineup before making my picks but sometimes I do. For an under a lineup is not going to change my mind. I'm assuming the A lineup is starting and if one of the top players is not starting that is only going to make me like the under pick more. But many of the times I will want to look at the lineup therefore many of the selections may only come 45 mins to an hour before 1st pitch. As a result I will be keeping my MLB pick write-ups to a minimum.

Another good resource is the Vegas Insider MLB Team Pages. It shows the results from every game of the season with the moneyline and totals odds.

If you like to bet MLB Player Props than you are going to want to see pitcher vs. hitter stats. For these stats I like's Scoreboard Page. Click "game preview" then "probables", and then "expanded stats" and you will have the hitter vs. pitcher stats from the past 5 years (more than enough). Having said all of this I rarely make any serious bets involving props but will unleash an occasional MLB prop pick.

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